Palaeoclimate constraints on the impact of 2 °C anthropogenic warming and beyond

• Hubertus Fischer
• Katrin J. Meissner
• Alan C. Mix
• Nerilie J. Abram
• Jacqueline Austermann
• Victor Brovkin
• Emilie Capron
• Daniele Colombaroli
• Anne-Laure Daniau
• Kelsey A. Dyez
• Thomas Felis
• Sarah A. Finkelstein
• Samuel L. Jaccard
• Erin L. McClymont
• Alessio Rovere
• Johannes Sutter
• Eric W. Wolff
• Stéphane Affolter
• Pepijn Bakker
• Juan Antonio Ballesteros-Cánovas
• Carlo Barbante
• Thibaut Caley
• Anders E. Carlson
• Olga Churakova
• Giuseppe Cortese
• Brian F. Cumming
• Basil A. S. Davis
• Anne de Vernal
• Julien Emile-Geay
• Sherilyn C. Fritz
• Paul Gierz
• Julia Gottschalk
• Max D. Holloway
• Fortunat Joos
• Michal Kucera
• Marie-France Loutre
• Daniel J. Lunt
• Katarzyna Marcisz
• Jennifer R. Marlon
• Philippe Martinez
• Valerie Masson-Delmotte
• Christoph Nehrbass-Ahles
• Bette L. Otto-Bliesner
• Christoph C. Raible
• Bjørg Risebrobakken
• María F. Sánchez Goñi
• Jennifer Saleem Arrigo
• Michael Sarnthein
• Jesper Sjolte
• Thomas F. Stocker
• Patricio A. Velasquez Alvárez
• Willy Tinner
• Paul J. Valdes
• Hendrik Vogel
• Heinz Wanner
• Qing Yan
• Zicheng Yu
• Martin Ziegler
• Liping Zhou

Abstract

Over the past 3.5 million years, there have been several intervals when climate conditions were warmer than during the pre-industrial Holocene. Although past intervals of warming were forced differently than future anthropogenic change, such periods can provide insights into potential future climate impacts and ecosystem feedbacks, especially over centennial-to-millennial timescales that are often not covered by climate model simulations. Our observation-based synthesis of the understanding of past intervals with temperatures within the range of projected future warming suggests that there is a low risk of runaway greenhouse gas feedbacks for global warming of no more than 2 °C. However, substantial regional environmental impacts can occur. A global average warming of 1–2 °C with strong polar amplification has, in the past, been accompanied by significant shifts in climate zones and the spatial distribution of land and ocean ecosystems. Sustained warming at this level has also led to substantial reductions of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, with sea-level increases of at least several metres on millennial timescales. Comparison of palaeo observations with climate model results suggests that, due to the lack of certain feedback processes, model-based climate projections may underestimate long-term warming in response to future radiative forcing by as much as a factor of two, and thus may also underestimate centennial-to-millennial-scale sea-level rise.

• DOI: 10.1038/s41561-018-0146-0

Zitiere diese Aktivität

@article{Fischer2018,
  Title = {Palaeoclimate constraints on the impact of 2 °C anthropogenic warming and beyond},
  Author = {Fischer, Hubertus and Meissner, Katrin J. and Mix, Alan C. and Abram, Nerilie J. and Austermann, Jacqueline and Brovkin, Victor and Capron, Emilie and Colombaroli, Daniele and Daniau, Anne-Laure and Dyez, Kelsey A. and Felis, Thomas and Finkelstein, Sarah A. and Jaccard, Samuel L. and McClymont, Erin L. and Rovere, Alessio and Sutter, Johannes and Wolff, Eric W. and Affolter, Stéphane and Bakker, Pepijn and Ballesteros-Cánovas, Juan Antonio and Barbante, Carlo and Caley, Thibaut and Carlson, Anders E. and Churakova, Olga and Cortese, Giuseppe and Cumming, Brian F. and Davis, Basil A. S. and de Vernal, Anne and Emile-Geay, Julien and Fritz, Sherilyn C. and Gierz, Paul and Gottschalk, Julia and Holloway, Max D. and Joos, Fortunat and Kucera, Michal and Loutre, Marie-France and Lunt, Daniel J. and Marcisz, Katarzyna and Marlon, Jennifer R. and Martinez, Philippe and Masson-Delmotte, Valerie and Nehrbass-Ahles, Christoph and Otto-Bliesner, Bette L. and Raible, Christoph C. and Risebrobakken, Bjørg and Sánchez Goñi, María F. and Arrigo, Jennifer Saleem and Sarnthein, Michael and Sjolte, Jesper and Stocker, Thomas F. and Velasquez Alvárez, Patricio A. and Tinner, Willy and Valdes, Paul J. and Vogel, Hendrik and Wanner, Heinz and Yan, Qing and Yu, Zicheng and Ziegler, Martin and Zhou, Liping},
  Editor = {},
  Journal = {Nature Geoscience},
  Year = {2018},
  Pages = {474-485},
  Volume = {11},
  Doi = {10.1038/s41561-018-0146-0},
  Abstract = {Over the past 3.5 million years, there have been several intervals when climate conditions were warmer than during the pre-industrial Holocene. Although past intervals of warming were forced differently than future anthropogenic change, such periods can provide insights into potential future climate impacts and ecosystem feedbacks, especially over centennial-to-millennial timescales that are often not covered by climate model simulations. Our observation-based synthesis of the understanding of past intervals with temperatures within the range of projected future warming suggests that there is a low risk of runaway greenhouse gas feedbacks for global warming of no more than 2 °C. However, substantial regional environmental impacts can occur. A global average warming of 1–2 °C with strong polar amplification has, in the past, been accompanied by significant shifts in climate zones and the spatial distribution of land and ocean ecosystems. Sustained warming at this level has also led to substantial reductions of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, with sea-level increases of at least several metres on millennial timescales. Comparison of palaeo observations with climate model results suggests that, due to the lack of certain feedback processes, model-based climate projections may underestimate long-term warming in response to future radiative forcing by as much as a factor of two, and thus may also underestimate centennial-to-millennial-scale sea-level rise.},
}

TY  - JOUR
AU  - Fischer, Hubertus
AU  - Meissner, Katrin J.
AU  - Mix, Alan C.
AU  - Abram, Nerilie J.
AU  - Austermann, Jacqueline
AU  - Brovkin, Victor
AU  - Capron, Emilie
AU  - Colombaroli, Daniele
AU  - Daniau, Anne-Laure
AU  - Dyez, Kelsey A.
AU  - Felis, Thomas
AU  - Finkelstein, Sarah A.
AU  - Jaccard, Samuel L.
AU  - McClymont, Erin L.
AU  - Rovere, Alessio
AU  - Sutter, Johannes
AU  - Wolff, Eric W.
AU  - Affolter, Stéphane
AU  - Bakker, Pepijn
AU  - Ballesteros-Cánovas, Juan Antonio
AU  - Barbante, Carlo
AU  - Caley, Thibaut
AU  - Carlson, Anders E.
AU  - Churakova, Olga
AU  - Cortese, Giuseppe
AU  - Cumming, Brian F.
AU  - Davis, Basil A. S.
AU  - de Vernal, Anne
AU  - Emile-Geay, Julien
AU  - Fritz, Sherilyn C.
AU  - Gierz, Paul
AU  - Gottschalk, Julia
AU  - Holloway, Max D.
AU  - Joos, Fortunat
AU  - Kucera, Michal
AU  - Loutre, Marie-France
AU  - Lunt, Daniel J.
AU  - Marcisz, Katarzyna
AU  - Marlon, Jennifer R.
AU  - Martinez, Philippe
AU  - Masson-Delmotte, Valerie
AU  - Nehrbass-Ahles, Christoph
AU  - Otto-Bliesner, Bette L.
AU  - Raible, Christoph C.
AU  - Risebrobakken, Bjørg
AU  - Sánchez Goñi, María F.
AU  - Arrigo, Jennifer Saleem
AU  - Sarnthein, Michael
AU  - Sjolte, Jesper
AU  - Stocker, Thomas F.
AU  - Velasquez Alvárez, Patricio A.
AU  - Tinner, Willy
AU  - Valdes, Paul J.
AU  - Vogel, Hendrik
AU  - Wanner, Heinz
AU  - Yan, Qing
AU  - Yu, Zicheng
AU  - Ziegler, Martin
AU  - Zhou, Liping
TI  - Palaeoclimate constraints on the impact of 2 °C anthropogenic warming and beyond
T2  - Nature Geoscience
PY  - 2018
SP  - 474-485
VL  - 11
DO  - 10.1038/s41561-018-0146-0
AB  - Over the past 3.5 million years, there have been several intervals when climate conditions were warmer than during the pre-industrial Holocene. Although past intervals of warming were forced differently than future anthropogenic change, such periods can provide insights into potential future climate impacts and ecosystem feedbacks, especially over centennial-to-millennial timescales that are often not covered by climate model simulations. Our observation-based synthesis of the understanding of past intervals with temperatures within the range of projected future warming suggests that there is a low risk of runaway greenhouse gas feedbacks for global warming of no more than 2 °C. However, substantial regional environmental impacts can occur. A global average warming of 1–2 °C with strong polar amplification has, in the past, been accompanied by significant shifts in climate zones and the spatial distribution of land and ocean ecosystems. Sustained warming at this level has also led to substantial reductions of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, with sea-level increases of at least several metres on millennial timescales. Comparison of palaeo observations with climate model results suggests that, due to the lack of certain feedback processes, model-based climate projections may underestimate long-term warming in response to future radiative forcing by as much as a factor of two, and thus may also underestimate centennial-to-millennial-scale sea-level rise.
ER  - 

Details

Forschungs-Spektrum