Impacts of local anthropogenic stressors outpace those of climate on coral reef collapse in the northern South China Sea

• Huili Xu
• Yuanchao Li
• Tong Liu
• Binxue Wang
• Lin Ma
• Zhaohai Bai
• Chaoqing Yu
• Xiaoyang Shan
• Zichen Li
• Shuqing Zhao
• Xiaoping Diao
• Yuehua Huang
• Dongdan Yuan
• Qipei Li
• Weilu Kang
• Jilin Liang
• Shiquan Chen
• Zhongjie Wu
• Xiubao Li
• Shuh-Ji Kao
• Tim Jennerjahn
• Hui Huang
• Danwei Huang
• Loke Ming Chou
• Hongwei Zhao

Abstract

Coral reefs are declining globally, but region-specific drivers of degradation remain poorly quantified, hindering local conservation policymaking. By collecting two decades of field data from 102 sites across 22 coral reefs in the northern South China Sea and employing panel regressions and structural equation modeling, we identify key stressors that are responsible for 40% (17–50%) of the declines in live coral cover. Local anthropogenic stressors—overfishing, nutrient pollution from agriculture and coastal urbanization—collectively explain 73% of live coral coverage variance, outweighing climate-associated thermal stress. We then propose an Integrated Coast-Reef Management framework that couples land-sea interventions—prioritizing sustainable fisheries, watershed nutrient management, and controls of crown-of-thorns starfish outbreaks. Spatial simulations indicate that this synergistical strategy could elevate live coral coverage by two to four times under global warming scenarios, avoiding reef calcification collapse. Our findings contribute to coral conservation paradigms by highlighting tailored strategies at the local level beyond globalized approaches, which offer scalable solutions for regions facing similar pressures.

• DOI: 10.1038/s41467-026-70760-1

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@article{Xu2026,
  Title = {Impacts of local anthropogenic stressors outpace those of climate on coral reef collapse in the northern South China Sea},
  Author = {Xu, Huili and Li, Yuanchao and Liu, Tong and Wang, Binxue and Ma, Lin and Bai, Zhaohai and Yu, Chaoqing and Shan, Xiaoyang and Li, Zichen and Zhao, Shuqing and Diao, Xiaoping and Huang, Yuehua and Yuan, Dongdan and Li, Qipei and Kang, Weilu and Liang, Jilin and Chen, Shiquan and Wu, Zhongjie and Li, Xiubao and Kao, Shuh-Ji and Jennerjahn, Tim and Huang, Hui and Huang, Danwei and Chou, Loke Ming and Zhao, Hongwei},
  Journal = {Nature Communications},
  Year = {2026},
  Pages = {4136},
  Volume = {17},
  Doi = {10.1038/s41467-026-70760-1},
  Abstract = {Coral reefs are declining globally, but region-specific drivers of degradation remain poorly quantified, hindering local conservation policymaking. By collecting two decades of field data from 102 sites across 22 coral reefs in the northern South China Sea and employing panel regressions and structural equation modeling, we identify key stressors that are responsible for 40% (17–50%) of the declines in live coral cover. Local anthropogenic stressors—overfishing, nutrient pollution from agriculture and coastal urbanization—collectively explain 73% of live coral coverage variance, outweighing climate-associated thermal stress. We then propose an Integrated Coast-Reef Management framework that couples land-sea interventions—prioritizing sustainable fisheries, watershed nutrient management, and controls of crown-of-thorns starfish outbreaks. Spatial simulations indicate that this synergistical strategy could elevate live coral coverage by two to four times under global warming scenarios, avoiding reef calcification collapse. Our findings contribute to coral conservation paradigms by highlighting tailored strategies at the local level beyond globalized approaches, which offer scalable solutions for regions facing similar pressures.},
}

TY  - JOUR
AU  - Xu, Huili
AU  - Li, Yuanchao
AU  - Liu, Tong
AU  - Wang, Binxue
AU  - Ma, Lin
AU  - Bai, Zhaohai
AU  - Yu, Chaoqing
AU  - Shan, Xiaoyang
AU  - Li, Zichen
AU  - Zhao, Shuqing
AU  - Diao, Xiaoping
AU  - Huang, Yuehua
AU  - Yuan, Dongdan
AU  - Li, Qipei
AU  - Kang, Weilu
AU  - Liang, Jilin
AU  - Chen, Shiquan
AU  - Wu, Zhongjie
AU  - Li, Xiubao
AU  - Kao, Shuh-Ji
AU  - Jennerjahn, Tim
AU  - Huang, Hui
AU  - Huang, Danwei
AU  - Chou, Loke Ming
AU  - Zhao, Hongwei
TI  - Impacts of local anthropogenic stressors outpace those of climate on coral reef collapse in the northern South China Sea
T2  - Nature Communications
PY  - 2026
SP  - 4136
VL  - 17
DO  - 10.1038/s41467-026-70760-1
AB  - Coral reefs are declining globally, but region-specific drivers of degradation remain poorly quantified, hindering local conservation policymaking. By collecting two decades of field data from 102 sites across 22 coral reefs in the northern South China Sea and employing panel regressions and structural equation modeling, we identify key stressors that are responsible for 40% (17–50%) of the declines in live coral cover. Local anthropogenic stressors—overfishing, nutrient pollution from agriculture and coastal urbanization—collectively explain 73% of live coral coverage variance, outweighing climate-associated thermal stress. We then propose an Integrated Coast-Reef Management framework that couples land-sea interventions—prioritizing sustainable fisheries, watershed nutrient management, and controls of crown-of-thorns starfish outbreaks. Spatial simulations indicate that this synergistical strategy could elevate live coral coverage by two to four times under global warming scenarios, avoiding reef calcification collapse. Our findings contribute to coral conservation paradigms by highlighting tailored strategies at the local level beyond globalized approaches, which offer scalable solutions for regions facing similar pressures.
ER  - 

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