Motivated by a need for climate-informed living marine resource management, increased emphasis has been placed on regional end-to-end modeling frameworks designed to project climate impacts on marine ecosystems and evaluate the efficacy of potential management strategies under changing conditions. The 'Future Seas' project was initiated with a focus on three fisheries (Pacific sardine, swordfish, and albacore tuna) in the California Current System (CCS). This work leverages a suite of climate, ocean, ecosystem, and economic models to project physical, ecological, and socio-economic change, evaluate management strategies, and quantify uncertainty in model projections. Here we describe the components of the modeling framework, considerations underlying choices made in model development, engagement with stakeholders, and key physical, ecological, and socio-economic results to date, including projections to 2100. Our broad aims are to (i) synthesize a large body of climate and fisheries research that has been conducted, and continues, under the Future Seas umbrella, and (ii) provide insight and recommendations to those pursuing similar efforts for other applications and in other regions. In general, our results indicate that all three species will likely shift their distributions (predominantly poleward) in the future, which impacts accessibility to fishing fleets, spatial management, and quota allocation. For similar integrative climate-to-fisheries projections, we recommend attention is given to: recognizing potential biases arising from differences between the climate products used for ecological model fitting and those used for model projection; how sources of projection uncertainty are prioritized, incorporated, and communicated; and quantitatively linking scenarios (especially socio-economic scenarios) with climate and ecological projections.
Smith J.A., Pozo Buil M., Muhling B., Tommasi D., Brodie S., Frawley T.H., Fiechter J., Koenigstein S., Himes-Cornell A., Alexander M.A., Bograd S.J., Cordero Quiros N., Crowder L.B., Curchitser E., Green S.J., Hardy N.A., Haynie A.C., Hazen E.L., Holsman K., Le Fol G., Lezama-Ochoa N., Rykaczewski R.R., Stock C.A., Stohs S., Sweeney J., Welch H. and Jacox M.G. (2023) Projecting climate change impacts from physics to fisheries: A view from three California Current fisheries. 211: 102973.
@article{Smith2023,
Title = {Projecting climate change impacts from physics to fisheries: A view from three California Current fisheries},
Author = {Smith, James A. and Pozo Buil, Mercedes and Muhling, Barbara and Tommasi, Desiree and Brodie, Stephanie and Frawley, Timothy H. and Fiechter, Jerome and Koenigstein, Stefan and Himes-Cornell, Amber and Alexander, Michael A. and Bograd, Steven J. and Cordero Quiros, Nathali and Crowder, Larry B. and Curchitser, Enrique and Green, Stephanie J. and Hardy, Natasha A. and Haynie, Alan C. and Hazen, Elliott L. and Holsman, Kirstin and Le Fol, Gwendal and Lezama-Ochoa, Nerea and Rykaczewski, Ryan R. and Stock, Charles A. and Stohs, Stephen and Sweeney, Jonathan and Welch, Heather and Jacox, Michael G.},
Editor = {},
Year = {2023},
Pages = {102973},
Volume = {211},
Abstract = {Motivated by a need for climate-informed living marine resource management, increased emphasis has been placed on regional end-to-end modeling frameworks designed to project climate impacts on marine ecosystems and evaluate the efficacy of potential management strategies under changing conditions. The 'Future Seas' project was initiated with a focus on three fisheries (Pacific sardine, swordfish, and albacore tuna) in the California Current System (CCS). This work leverages a suite of climate, ocean, ecosystem, and economic models to project physical, ecological, and socio-economic change, evaluate management strategies, and quantify uncertainty in model projections. Here we describe the components of the modeling framework, considerations underlying choices made in model development, engagement with stakeholders, and key physical, ecological, and socio-economic results to date, including projections to 2100. Our broad aims are to (i) synthesize a large body of climate and fisheries research that has been conducted, and continues, under the Future Seas umbrella, and (ii) provide insight and recommendations to those pursuing similar efforts for other applications and in other regions. In general, our results indicate that all three species will likely shift their distributions (predominantly poleward) in the future, which impacts accessibility to fishing fleets, spatial management, and quota allocation. For similar integrative climate-to-fisheries projections, we recommend attention is given to: recognizing potential biases arising from differences between the climate products used for ecological model fitting and those used for model projection; how sources of projection uncertainty are prioritized, incorporated, and communicated; and quantitatively linking scenarios (especially socio-economic scenarios) with climate and ecological projections.},
Keywords = {},
}
TY - JOUR
AU - Smith, James A.
AU - Pozo Buil, Mercedes
AU - Muhling, Barbara
AU - Tommasi, Desiree
AU - Brodie, Stephanie
AU - Frawley, Timothy H.
AU - Fiechter, Jerome
AU - Koenigstein, Stefan
AU - Himes-Cornell, Amber
AU - Alexander, Michael A.
AU - Bograd, Steven J.
AU - Cordero Quiros, Nathali
AU - Crowder, Larry B.
AU - Curchitser, Enrique
AU - Green, Stephanie J.
AU - Hardy, Natasha A.
AU - Haynie, Alan C.
AU - Hazen, Elliott L.
AU - Holsman, Kirstin
AU - Le Fol, Gwendal
AU - Lezama-Ochoa, Nerea
AU - Rykaczewski, Ryan R.
AU - Stock, Charles A.
AU - Stohs, Stephen
AU - Sweeney, Jonathan
AU - Welch, Heather
AU - Jacox, Michael G.
TI - Projecting climate change impacts from physics to fisheries: A view from three California Current fisheries
PY - 2023
SP - 102973
VL - 211
AB - Motivated by a need for climate-informed living marine resource management, increased emphasis has been placed on regional end-to-end modeling frameworks designed to project climate impacts on marine ecosystems and evaluate the efficacy of potential management strategies under changing conditions. The 'Future Seas' project was initiated with a focus on three fisheries (Pacific sardine, swordfish, and albacore tuna) in the California Current System (CCS). This work leverages a suite of climate, ocean, ecosystem, and economic models to project physical, ecological, and socio-economic change, evaluate management strategies, and quantify uncertainty in model projections. Here we describe the components of the modeling framework, considerations underlying choices made in model development, engagement with stakeholders, and key physical, ecological, and socio-economic results to date, including projections to 2100. Our broad aims are to (i) synthesize a large body of climate and fisheries research that has been conducted, and continues, under the Future Seas umbrella, and (ii) provide insight and recommendations to those pursuing similar efforts for other applications and in other regions. In general, our results indicate that all three species will likely shift their distributions (predominantly poleward) in the future, which impacts accessibility to fishing fleets, spatial management, and quota allocation. For similar integrative climate-to-fisheries projections, we recommend attention is given to: recognizing potential biases arising from differences between the climate products used for ecological model fitting and those used for model projection; how sources of projection uncertainty are prioritized, incorporated, and communicated; and quantitatively linking scenarios (especially socio-economic scenarios) with climate and ecological projections.
ER -
