Ocean warming and acidification threaten the future growth of coral reefs. This is because the calcifying coral reef taxa that construct the calcium carbonate frameworks and cement the reef together are highly sensitive to ocean warming and acidification. However, the global-scale effects of ocean warming and acidification on rates of coral reef net carbonate production remain poorly constrained despite a wealth of studies assessing their effects on the calcification of individual organisms. Here, we present global estimates of projected future changes in coral reef net carbonate production under ocean warming and acidification. We apply a meta-analysis of responses of coral reef taxa calcification and bioerosion rates to predicted changes in coral cover driven by climate change to estimate the net carbonate production rates of 183 reefs worldwide by 2050 and 2100. We forecast mean global reef net carbonate production under representative concentration pathways (RCP) 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5 will decline by 76, 149, and 156%, respectively, by 2100. While 63% of reefs are projected to continue to accrete by 2100 under RCP2.6, 94% will be eroding by 2050 under RCP8.5, and no reefs will continue to accrete at rates matching projected sea level rise under RCP4.5 or 8.5 by 2100. Projected reduced coral cover due to bleaching events predominately drives these declines rather than the direct physiological impacts of ocean warming and acidification on calcification or bioerosion. Presently degraded reefs were also more sensitive in our analysis. These findings highlight the low likelihood that the world’s coral reefs will maintain their functional roles without near-term stabilization of atmospheric CO2 emissions.
Cornwall C.E., Comeau S., Kornder N.A., Perry C.T., van Hooidonk R., DeCarlo T.M., Pratchett M.S., Anderson K.D., Browne N., Carpenter R., Diaz-Pulido G., D’Olivo J.P., Doo S., Figueiredo J., Fortunato S.A.V., Kennedy E., Lantz C.A., McCulloch M.T., González-Rivero M., Schoepf V., Smithers S.G. and Lowe R.J. (2021) Global declines in coral reef calcium carbonate production under ocean acidification and warming. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 118(21). 10.1073/pnas.2015265118
@article{Cornwall2021,
Title = {Global declines in coral reef calcium carbonate production under ocean acidification and warming},
Author = {Cornwall, Christopher E. and Comeau, Steeve and Kornder, Niklas A. and Perry, Chris T. and van Hooidonk, Ruben and DeCarlo, Thomas M. and Pratchett, Morgan S. and Anderson, Kristen D. and Browne, Nicola and Carpenter, Robert and Diaz-Pulido, Guillermo and D’Olivo, Juan P. and Doo, Steve and Figueiredo, Joana and Fortunato, Sofia A. V. and Kennedy, Emma and Lantz, Coulson A. and McCulloch, Malcolm T. and González-Rivero, Manuel and Schoepf, Verena and Smithers, Scott G. and Lowe, Ryan J.},
Editor = {},
Journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
Year = {2021},
Volume = {118},
Doi = {10.1073/pnas.2015265118},
Abstract = {Ocean warming and acidification threaten the future growth of coral reefs. This is because the calcifying coral reef taxa that construct the calcium carbonate frameworks and cement the reef together are highly sensitive to ocean warming and acidification. However, the global-scale effects of ocean warming and acidification on rates of coral reef net carbonate production remain poorly constrained despite a wealth of studies assessing their effects on the calcification of individual organisms. Here, we present global estimates of projected future changes in coral reef net carbonate production under ocean warming and acidification. We apply a meta-analysis of responses of coral reef taxa calcification and bioerosion rates to predicted changes in coral cover driven by climate change to estimate the net carbonate production rates of 183 reefs worldwide by 2050 and 2100. We forecast mean global reef net carbonate production under representative concentration pathways (RCP) 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5 will decline by 76, 149, and 156%, respectively, by 2100. While 63% of reefs are projected to continue to accrete by 2100 under RCP2.6, 94% will be eroding by 2050 under RCP8.5, and no reefs will continue to accrete at rates matching projected sea level rise under RCP4.5 or 8.5 by 2100. Projected reduced coral cover due to bleaching events predominately drives these declines rather than the direct physiological impacts of ocean warming and acidification on calcification or bioerosion. Presently degraded reefs were also more sensitive in our analysis. These findings highlight the low likelihood that the world’s coral reefs will maintain their functional roles without near-term stabilization of atmospheric CO2 emissions.},
}
TY - JOUR
AU - Cornwall, Christopher E.
AU - Comeau, Steeve
AU - Kornder, Niklas A.
AU - Perry, Chris T.
AU - van Hooidonk, Ruben
AU - DeCarlo, Thomas M.
AU - Pratchett, Morgan S.
AU - Anderson, Kristen D.
AU - Browne, Nicola
AU - Carpenter, Robert
AU - Diaz-Pulido, Guillermo
AU - D’Olivo, Juan P.
AU - Doo, Steve
AU - Figueiredo, Joana
AU - Fortunato, Sofia A. V.
AU - Kennedy, Emma
AU - Lantz, Coulson A.
AU - McCulloch, Malcolm T.
AU - González-Rivero, Manuel
AU - Schoepf, Verena
AU - Smithers, Scott G.
AU - Lowe, Ryan J.
TI - Global declines in coral reef calcium carbonate production under ocean acidification and warming
T2 - Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
PY - 2021
VL - 118
DO - 10.1073/pnas.2015265118
AB - Ocean warming and acidification threaten the future growth of coral reefs. This is because the calcifying coral reef taxa that construct the calcium carbonate frameworks and cement the reef together are highly sensitive to ocean warming and acidification. However, the global-scale effects of ocean warming and acidification on rates of coral reef net carbonate production remain poorly constrained despite a wealth of studies assessing their effects on the calcification of individual organisms. Here, we present global estimates of projected future changes in coral reef net carbonate production under ocean warming and acidification. We apply a meta-analysis of responses of coral reef taxa calcification and bioerosion rates to predicted changes in coral cover driven by climate change to estimate the net carbonate production rates of 183 reefs worldwide by 2050 and 2100. We forecast mean global reef net carbonate production under representative concentration pathways (RCP) 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5 will decline by 76, 149, and 156%, respectively, by 2100. While 63% of reefs are projected to continue to accrete by 2100 under RCP2.6, 94% will be eroding by 2050 under RCP8.5, and no reefs will continue to accrete at rates matching projected sea level rise under RCP4.5 or 8.5 by 2100. Projected reduced coral cover due to bleaching events predominately drives these declines rather than the direct physiological impacts of ocean warming and acidification on calcification or bioerosion. Presently degraded reefs were also more sensitive in our analysis. These findings highlight the low likelihood that the world’s coral reefs will maintain their functional roles without near-term stabilization of atmospheric CO2 emissions.
ER -
