Short-duration (1–3 h) rainfall extremes can cause serious damage to societies through rapidly developing (flash) flooding and are determined by complex, multifaceted processes that are altering as Earth’s climate warms. In this Review, we examine evidence from observational, theoretical and modelling studies for the intensification of these rainfall extremes, the drivers and the impact on flash flooding. Both short-duration and long-duration (>1 day) rainfall extremes are intensifying with warming at a rate consistent with the increase in atmospheric moisture (~7% K−1), while in some regions, increases in short-duration extreme rainfall intensities are stronger than expected from moisture increases alone. These stronger local increases are related to feedbacks in convective clouds, but their exact role is uncertain because of the very small scales involved. Future extreme rainfall intensification is also modulated by changes to temperature stratification and large-scale atmospheric circulation. The latter remains a major source of uncertainty. Intensification of short-duration extremes has likely increased the incidence of flash flooding at local scales, and this can further compound with an increase in storm spatial footprint to considerably increase total event rainfall. These findings call for urgent climate change adaptation measures to manage increasing flood risks.
Fowler H.J., Lenderink G., Prein A.F., Westra S., Allan R.P., Ban N., Barbero R., Berg P., Blenkinsop S., Do H.X., Guerreiro S., Haerter J.O., Kendon E.J., Lewis E., Schaer C., Sharma A., Villarini G., Wasko C. and Zhang X. (2021) Anthropogenic intensification of short-duration rainfall extremes. Nature Reviews Earth & Environment 2: 107-122. 10.1038/s43017-020-00128-6
@article{Fowler2021,
Title = {Anthropogenic intensification of short-duration rainfall extremes},
Author = {Fowler, Hayley J. and Lenderink, Geert and Prein, Andreas F. and Westra, Seth and Allan, Richard P. and Ban, Nikolina and Barbero, Renaud and Berg, Peter and Blenkinsop, Stephen and Do, Hong X. and Guerreiro, Selma and Haerter, Jan O. and Kendon, Elizabeth J. and Lewis, Elizabeth and Schaer, Christoph and Sharma, Ashish and Villarini, Gabriele and Wasko, Conrad and Zhang, Xuebin},
Editor = {},
Journal = {Nature Reviews Earth & Environment},
Year = {2021},
Pages = {107-122},
Volume = {2},
Doi = {10.1038/s43017-020-00128-6},
Abstract = {Short-duration (1–3 h) rainfall extremes can cause serious damage to societies through rapidly developing (flash) flooding and are determined by complex, multifaceted processes that are altering as Earth’s climate warms. In this Review, we examine evidence from observational, theoretical and modelling studies for the intensification of these rainfall extremes, the drivers and the impact on flash flooding. Both short-duration and long-duration (>1 day) rainfall extremes are intensifying with warming at a rate consistent with the increase in atmospheric moisture (~7% K−1), while in some regions, increases in short-duration extreme rainfall intensities are stronger than expected from moisture increases alone. These stronger local increases are related to feedbacks in convective clouds, but their exact role is uncertain because of the very small scales involved. Future extreme rainfall intensification is also modulated by changes to temperature stratification and large-scale atmospheric circulation. The latter remains a major source of uncertainty. Intensification of short-duration extremes has likely increased the incidence of flash flooding at local scales, and this can further compound with an increase in storm spatial footprint to considerably increase total event rainfall. These findings call for urgent climate change adaptation measures to manage increasing flood risks.},
}
TY - JOUR
AU - Fowler, Hayley J.
AU - Lenderink, Geert
AU - Prein, Andreas F.
AU - Westra, Seth
AU - Allan, Richard P.
AU - Ban, Nikolina
AU - Barbero, Renaud
AU - Berg, Peter
AU - Blenkinsop, Stephen
AU - Do, Hong X.
AU - Guerreiro, Selma
AU - Haerter, Jan O.
AU - Kendon, Elizabeth J.
AU - Lewis, Elizabeth
AU - Schaer, Christoph
AU - Sharma, Ashish
AU - Villarini, Gabriele
AU - Wasko, Conrad
AU - Zhang, Xuebin
TI - Anthropogenic intensification of short-duration rainfall extremes
T2 - Nature Reviews Earth & Environment
PY - 2021
SP - 107-122
VL - 2
DO - 10.1038/s43017-020-00128-6
AB - Short-duration (1–3 h) rainfall extremes can cause serious damage to societies through rapidly developing (flash) flooding and are determined by complex, multifaceted processes that are altering as Earth’s climate warms. In this Review, we examine evidence from observational, theoretical and modelling studies for the intensification of these rainfall extremes, the drivers and the impact on flash flooding. Both short-duration and long-duration (>1 day) rainfall extremes are intensifying with warming at a rate consistent with the increase in atmospheric moisture (~7% K−1), while in some regions, increases in short-duration extreme rainfall intensities are stronger than expected from moisture increases alone. These stronger local increases are related to feedbacks in convective clouds, but their exact role is uncertain because of the very small scales involved. Future extreme rainfall intensification is also modulated by changes to temperature stratification and large-scale atmospheric circulation. The latter remains a major source of uncertainty. Intensification of short-duration extremes has likely increased the incidence of flash flooding at local scales, and this can further compound with an increase in storm spatial footprint to considerably increase total event rainfall. These findings call for urgent climate change adaptation measures to manage increasing flood risks.
ER -
