The Indian winter monsoon and its response to external forcing over the last two and a half centuries
Philipp M. Munz
Andreas Lückge
Michael Siccha
Anna Böll
Sven Forke
Michal Kucera
Hartmut Schulz
Abstract
The Indian winter monsoon (IWM) is a key component of the seasonally changing monsoon system that affects the densely populated regions of South Asia. Cold winds originating in high northern latitudes provide a link of continental-scale Northern Hemisphere climate to the tropics. Western disturbances associated with the IWM play a critical role for the climate and hydrology in northern India and the western Himalaya region. It is vital to understand the mechanisms and teleconnections that influence IWM variability to better predict changes in future climate. Here we present a study of regionally calibrated winter (January) temperatures and according IWM intensities, based on a planktic foraminiferal record with biennial (2.55 years) resolution. Over the last ~250 years, IWM intensities gradually weakened, based on the long-term trend of reconstructed January temperatures. Furthermore, the results indicate that IWM is connected on interannual- to decadal time scales to climate variability of the tropical and extratropical Pacific, via El Niño Southern Oscillation and Pacific Decadal Oscillation. However, our findings suggest that this relationship appeared to begin to decouple since the beginning of the twentieth century. Cross-spectral analysis revealed that several distinct decadal-scale phases of colder climate and accordingly more intense winter monsoon centered at the years ~1800, ~1890 and ~1930 can be linked to changes of the North Atlantic Oscillation.
Munz P.M., Lückge A., Siccha M., Böll A., Forke S., Kucera M. and Schulz H. (2017) The Indian winter monsoon and its response to external forcing over the last two and a half centuries. Climate Dynamics 49(5-6): 1801-1812. 10.1007/s00382-016-3403-1
@article{Munz2017,
Title = {The Indian winter monsoon and its response to external forcing over the last two and a half centuries},
Author = {Munz, Philipp M. and Lückge, Andreas and Siccha, Michael and Böll, Anna and Forke, Sven and Kucera, Michal and Schulz, Hartmut},
Editor = {},
Journal = {Climate Dynamics},
Year = {2017},
Pages = {1801-1812},
Volume = {49},
Doi = {10.1007/s00382-016-3403-1},
Abstract = {The Indian winter monsoon (IWM) is a key component of the seasonally changing monsoon system that affects the densely populated regions of South Asia. Cold winds originating in high northern latitudes provide a link of continental-scale Northern Hemisphere climate to the tropics. Western disturbances associated with the IWM play a critical role for the climate and hydrology in northern India and the western Himalaya region. It is vital to understand the mechanisms and teleconnections that influence IWM variability to better predict changes in future climate. Here we present a study of regionally calibrated winter (January) temperatures and according IWM intensities, based on a planktic foraminiferal record with biennial (2.55 years) resolution. Over the last ~250 years, IWM intensities gradually weakened, based on the long-term trend of reconstructed January temperatures. Furthermore, the results indicate that IWM is connected on interannual- to decadal time scales to climate variability of the tropical and extratropical Pacific, via El Niño Southern Oscillation and Pacific Decadal Oscillation. However, our findings suggest that this relationship appeared to begin to decouple since the beginning of the twentieth century. Cross-spectral analysis revealed that several distinct decadal-scale phases of colder climate and accordingly more intense winter monsoon centered at the years ~1800, ~1890 and ~1930 can be linked to changes of the North Atlantic Oscillation.},
}
TY - JOUR
AU - Munz, Philipp M.
AU - Lückge, Andreas
AU - Siccha, Michael
AU - Böll, Anna
AU - Forke, Sven
AU - Kucera, Michal
AU - Schulz, Hartmut
TI - The Indian winter monsoon and its response to external forcing over the last two and a half centuries
T2 - Climate Dynamics
PY - 2017
SP - 1801-1812
VL - 49
DO - 10.1007/s00382-016-3403-1
AB - The Indian winter monsoon (IWM) is a key component of the seasonally changing monsoon system that affects the densely populated regions of South Asia. Cold winds originating in high northern latitudes provide a link of continental-scale Northern Hemisphere climate to the tropics. Western disturbances associated with the IWM play a critical role for the climate and hydrology in northern India and the western Himalaya region. It is vital to understand the mechanisms and teleconnections that influence IWM variability to better predict changes in future climate. Here we present a study of regionally calibrated winter (January) temperatures and according IWM intensities, based on a planktic foraminiferal record with biennial (2.55 years) resolution. Over the last ~250 years, IWM intensities gradually weakened, based on the long-term trend of reconstructed January temperatures. Furthermore, the results indicate that IWM is connected on interannual- to decadal time scales to climate variability of the tropical and extratropical Pacific, via El Niño Southern Oscillation and Pacific Decadal Oscillation. However, our findings suggest that this relationship appeared to begin to decouple since the beginning of the twentieth century. Cross-spectral analysis revealed that several distinct decadal-scale phases of colder climate and accordingly more intense winter monsoon centered at the years ~1800, ~1890 and ~1930 can be linked to changes of the North Atlantic Oscillation.
ER -
